Randron Sports mark: a chalked letter A inside a square

Notes on odds, house percentages and the arithmetic behind the games.

Reading American, Decimal and Fractional Odds

Three notations describe the same thing, and each was shaped by the place that used it. American odds are written against a hundred: minus one fifty means a hundred and fifty risked to win a hundred, plus one fifty means a hundred risked to win a hundred and fifty. The hundred is a unit of account, not an instruction about stake size.

Decimal odds, the continental form, quote the total return per unit staked, so a price of two and a half returns two and a half units in all, of which one and a half is profit. Fractional odds, the British racecourse form, quote profit against stake, so the same price is written three to two.

Converting between them is arithmetic, not judgement. A decimal price is one plus the fraction. An American minus price divided by itself plus a hundred gives the implied probability; an American plus price is a hundred divided by the price plus a hundred. A price of minus one fifty implies sixty per cent; a price of plus one fifty implies forty per cent.

Add the implied probabilities on both sides of a two-way market and the total exceeds one hundred per cent. The excess is the margin described in the entry on the vigorish. It is the reason a set of prices is never a set of forecasts.